Proximate and Intermediate Determinants of Fertility

The first scholars to discuss the “the proximate and intermediate determinants of fertility” were Kingsley Davis and Judith Blake (1956), who identified fourteen determinants. Twenty-seven years later, Bongaarts and Potter (1983: 163–65) reduced the number to nine. The first four were the “proximate” determinants:

1.  Fecundity—the ability to have sexual intercourse, the ability to conceive, and the ability to carry pregnancy to term,
2. Exposure to the risk of pregnancy— sexual unions, such as marriage, and the actual time that partners spend together,
3. Birth control methods—contraceptives, sterilization, coitus interruptus,
4. Abortion.

There were five “intermediate determinants” of fertility, those factors by which the “proximate determinants” are altered and that fall soundly in the realm of social behavior:

1. Postpartum taboos—such as sexual abstinence for new mothers,
2. Duration of breast feeding—nursing suppresses ovulation,
3. Delayed marriage—many societies have strong norms against young women engaging in premarital sex,
4. Disruption of union via male out-migration or military service, and
5. Attitudes toward contraceptives and family planning.

Over the ensuing three decades social scientists came to treat the “proximate and intermediate determinants of fertility” as demographic laws. Social scientists working in the Caribbean were no exception, particularly regarding male wage migration and the resulting male absenteeism so widespread in the Caribbean. They frequently assumed and even calculated—without empirical support—the dampening effect that male out-migration supposedly had on birth rates among the women staying behind (Murthy 1973; Blake 1961: 249–50, 1954; see also Denton 1979; Williams et al. 1975; Lowenthal and Comitas 1962: 197; Ibberson 1956: 99; McElroy and Albuquerque 1990; Brockerhoff and Yang 1994).

The problem is that while seemingly obvious, the assumptions underlying the “proximate and intermediate determinants of fertility” were based on Western middle and upper class courtship behavior, where marriage, or at least stable union, was the criterion for sexual reproduction. They do not always apply in other societies; in the impoverished Caribbean, they do not apply at all, as illustrated in the fewer men, more babies phenomenon.

Fewer Men, More Babies

Gearing (1988) in Guadeloupe, Marino (1970) in the Commonwealth Caribbean, Guengant (1985: 48, 70, 103) in Montserrat, and Brittain in St. Barthelemy (1990) and again in St. Vincent and the Grenadines (1991a) all demonstrated unequivocal, positive, time-ordered correlations between total fertility rates and migration-induced male absenteeism. In each case, fertility increments closely followed the onset of migration with lags varying from zero to five years. This phenomenon appears even more remarkable when taking into account the degree of male absenteeism; male wage migration meant that there were sometimes as many as twice the number of reproductive-aged females versus males on home islands. Yet, women were having more and not fewer babies [note 2].

The simple and prosaic explanation for this phenomenon is money. The more wealth available to men, the more disposed Caribbean parents, particularly older women, were to permit sexual access to younger women and the more disposed women already engaged in their reproductive career were to acquiesce themselves, providing the impetus that explains why in times of high wage migration, more women among the impoverished Caribbean class bore more children, i.e. there was more money to meet the demands women and their families attached to sex and procreation and that was necessary to feed and care for a child until he or she became a contributing member of the household. But while the explanation might seem simple, the insights we can gain into Caribbean family patterns through focusing on the transfer of money from men to women is profound.

A look at child nutrition and mortality rates illustrates the gravity of the problem that faced lower-income Caribbean families. In 1890 Grenada, for example, half of all infants died before their first birthday; in 1896–1897 Jamaica, 17.6 percent of infants died in the first year of life and 26.8 percent of children died before the age of five; in 1952 Martinique, infant mortality was 23 percent (Brereton 1989: 103). dependent on child labor. In Jean Rabel Haiti malnutrition levels in the 1990s approached 40 percent for children six to seventy-two months of age and 25 percent of children die before they reach five years of age (see Schwartz 2009). Thus, rearing young children to the ages when they were most likely to survive and when they begin to make contributions to household production was difficult. For obvious reasons money made child survival more probable; money was used to support women during pregnancy, to help account for lost labor of the mother, and to nurture young children through to the ages where they were no longer extremely vulnerable and began to become net producers. And money could most readily be garnered from baby fathers—rather than uncles or grandfathers—because baby fathers were selected precisely for their capacity to provide financial support.

In understanding the importance of investments in young children, Jean Rabel, Haiti serves as a valuable case where data not available in the past ethnographic record can be partially recovered. The value of child labor and the stress that children experienced prior to reaching the age where they begin to contribute to the household labor pool was captured in the term chape, a frequently used local term that conceptually integrates both the passage of the vulnerable years of childhood and the entrance into the age of productivity. Chape literally meant “to escape,” and in this sense connoted the danger that a child passed through early on in life. The child was considered to chape when he or she has passed that point where death from malnutrition is most likely. But it is also at that point in the child’s life “when he can do for himself” (li ka fe pou kont li), “when he can wash his own clothes” (lè li ka lave rad pa li), when he can “get by” (lè li ka boukannen),3 “when he can go to the water by himself” (lè li ka al nan dlo pou kont li), and just as importantly, when he or she begins to contribute to the sustenance of the household. Respondents in the 136-household survey of opinions regarding children and household labor tasks explained the process,

Oh, why does a person have children? You have children. You struggle to chape them. . . . You raise them. They chape. Tomorrow, God willing, if you need a little water, the child can get it for you. If you need a little firewood, he can carry it for you.4 (fifty-five-year-old father of seventeen)

I had children, now I have a problem, now the children can solve the problem. Tomorrow, God willing I cannot help myself, it is on the children I will depend. Today I chape them. Tomorrow God willing we struggle with life together.5 (forty-one-year-old mother of four)

And to recall women in Jean Rabel commenting on the importance of a husband,

He gives me money for the children, that is what makes me prefer having him around.6 (twenty-seven year-old mother of five)

What I am telling you is when you are young, you need a husband. What I mean is, if you haven’t had children yet. So you can make a child.7 (forty-two-year-old mother of three)

If a person marries, why does she marry? She does not marry to be a big shot or anything like that. It is so she can have children… Why does a person want children? It is to help…to go to the water…to go get wood.8 (forty-year-old mother of five)

He has to come sit there and help me chape the children.9 (forty-year-old mother of four)

And once the children are there,

What makes me say I can live without a man? What I need to do to come up with a sack of food I can accomplish with my four children.10 (thirty-year-old mother of four).

If I have children, I don’t need my husband at all. Children, hey! hey! I would like to have ten children. I don’t need my husband.11 (forty-one-year-old mother of seven).

Why can I live without a man? I arrive at an age like this. All my affairs are in order. I don’t need my husband anymore.12 (fifty-six-year-old mother of eight)

If we accept the argument that children were considered critical to household production, that they were highly desired, that increased availability of money made successful pregnancies and child survival more likely—and women and their families more inclined to accept male consorts—then the question is how were women able to bear more children precisely when there were fewer men. How fertility increased during periods of high male absenteeism was precisely because of polygyny and unstable unions, types of conjugal unions common in the Caribbean and that Bongaarts and Potter (1983) and other researchers erroneously posited as lowering the “exposure to the risk of pregnancy,” thereby precipitating a drop in number of births (see Wood 1995 for a review of conflict surrounding this issue).

Polygyny, although never legal in the Caribbean, was long identified as part of an informal “standard” whereby married men could assume responsibility for additional common-law wives. In these “extramarital” unions, the women lived in separate homesteads or, in a form not recognized as a consummated union, remained in the homesteads of their parents (known in the anthropology of the Caribbean as a “visiting union”). The men performed as de facto husbands, providing support and fathering children. This nonlegal, or de facto, polygyny made it possible for a greater number of women to gain socially accepted sexual access to and financial support from the fewer available but more financially capable men, thereby overcoming imbalanced sex-ratios caused by male migration (for Haiti, see Herskovits 1937: 114 –15; Simpson 1942: 656; Murray 1977: 263; for Carriacou, see M. G. Smith 1961: 469; 1962: 117–22, 463–65, 1966: xviii; Hill 1977: 281; for the Commonwealth Caribbean, see Otterbein 1965; Marino 1970; Sutton and Makiesky‑Barrow 1970: 312–13: for Jamaica, see Clarke, 1966; for Trinidad, see Greenfield, 1966; for Providencia, see Wilson 1973: 79; for Belize, see Gonzalez 1969: 49; for St. John, see Olwig 1985: 125; for St. Vincents, see Gearing 1988: 219; for Montserrat, see Philpott 1973: 116, 119; for British Guyana, see R. T. Smith, 1988).

Greater numbers of births during times of male absenteeism were also made possible through a series of relationships, what can be called unstable union. Serial mating, or what is sometimes called serial monogamy (without the emphasis on legal marriage), was socially viable and acceptable in the Caribbean. Women often began childbearing while still living in the home of their parents (see Clarke 1966: 99; Blake 1961; Greenfield 1966; Freilich 1968: 52; Senior 1991); they waited to commit to matrimony until toward the end of their reproductive careers when they were in their thirties and forties (Massiah 1983: 14; Roberts, 1957: 206–7). The trend was manifest in the fact that up until the 1970s, 40 to 75 percent of all Caribbean children were born to unmarried women (Senior 1991: 82; Roberts, 1957: 202); and 50 percent of Caribbean women bore children by two or more partners over the course of their lives (Ebanks et al. 1974; Ebanks 1973; Roberts, 1957).

The extent to which it was in fact polygyny and serial mating that made increased birth rates in the Caribbean possible when fewer men were present is evident in the increasing incidence of illegitimate births during times of heavy male absenteeism, called a Caribbean “structural principle” by Hill (1977: 281; see also Otterbein 1965; M.G. Smith 1962: 117–22; Roberts 1957: 220). The birth histories of individual Caribbean women also demonstrated the relationship. Those women with the highest fertility levels were not, as expected in Bongaarts and Potter’s model, those who remained in stable union. Ebanks et al. (1974) in Barbados and Ebanks (1973) in Jamaica found that in contrast to conventional demographic theory, the number of children a woman gave birth to in her lifetime increased with the number of partnerships she had. This was the case even when the researchers controlled for present age, age at entry into first union, age at first pregnancy, time spent within sexual union, time spent outside of union, type of union, and contraceptive use (see also Wilson 1961, for a similar finding in Providencia, and Marino, 1970: 166, who compared age cohorts of women from eight different islands).

Conclusion

I have tried to show how Caribbean family patterns were a response to basic economic challenges that confronted impoverished people living in the region. The costs of households and the need for children to make them productive set up conditions that would give way to the familial patterns found in the Caribbean. Both women, parents, and, arguably, men subscribed in principle to elite values of marriage and monogamy. Indeed, in the Caribbean, female participation in the salaried labor force has been correlated with increased marriage rates and lower rates of illegitimacy, i.e., when women have a dependable source of extrahousehold income they marry (Abraham 1993). But it was not historically so easy. Low income Caribbean parents, especially mothers, wanted children and grandchildren, indeed needed them to make the household productive. But they wanted—and arguably needed—their daughter to father them with men who could provide income to at least help get the children through the early period of dependency, that critical zero to five years stage before children became contributing members of the household. Moreover, as women advanced in their reproductive careers, they depended on men to underwrite the costs of establishing a new productive homestead and the beginning of their marketing careers.

Thus,  a particular configuration of a sexual moral economy emerged. Mothers tightly controlled daughters. They instilled them with fear of contraception and abortion, kept them in the dark about the mechanics of pregnancy, and monitored their sexual activities. On the other side of the equation, sons were encouraged to be sexually aggressive and ridiculed for not conforming. A man was not a man if he did not have premarital and extramarital sex and his status depended heavily on the number of children he sired. Not warned by mothers, not protected against men with financial resources, daughters were left defenseless against pregnancy.

On the part of males, the scarcity of cash and salaried jobs made it difficult for them to find the means to meet the demands of women and their families and most importantly of all, to finance a household. The primary way men got the money was by migrating. Wage migration became a male determinant of parenthood in much of the Caribbean, a veritable rite of passage. If men wanted to fully participate in adult social life they often had to migrate. But it was emphatically not an issue of men simply seeking the means to meet financial demands attached to sex. And it is here that we come back once again to the other side of the issue, the side often ignored in the literature: the dependency of Caribbean men on women and children, seen earlier; for economic autonomy, dignity, and respect ultimately accrued to impoverished West Indian men only through the co-ownership of the most important means of production and mechanism for survival in the Caribbean, a household.

The frequent absences of men, the increased income of those who were present, and the increased income through remittances from fathers, brothers, sons, and lovers, in combination with pressure from elders and ignorance of the mechanisms of childbirth, meant that many women were more likely not to marry until later in life, to keep options open to them, and to begin or to intensify their childbearing career during times of high male wage migration—when men were scarcer but had greater resources—resulting in the counterintuitive phenomenon of fewer men, more babies. When men and women did marry it was to consolidate exclusive ownership, rights to production, and heredity for an already long established and productive household—especially important to a woman in lieu of the probability that her now financially mature husband might engage in extra-marital unions that result in the birth of “outside” children, i.e. polygyny.

Moreover, although it struck most Western observers as bizarre, the fewer-men-more-babies phenomenon may be much more widespread than the Caribbean. Ethnographers in Polynesia (Larson 1981), in Thailand (Kunstadter 1971), in New Guinea (Taufa et al.1990), and in rural Spain (Reher and Iriso-Napal 1989) all found statistically positive relationships between increased birth rates and male absenteeism brought about by wage migration. Researchers analyzing large samples of cross-country data for developing regions have similarly noted that migration delays the transition to lower fertility (Bilsborrow 1987; Bilsborrow and Winegarden 1985); Bongaarts himself noted that in sub-Saharan Africa—an area characterized by high male wage migration—fertility-inhibiting effects expected from migration did not come about, the reasons for which he could only speculate (Bongaarts et al. 1984: 511). Indeed, what perplexed Bongaarts is an old and apparently much forgotten idiosyncrasy that vexed earlier students of the demographic transition. Even Kingsley Davis (1963), the original formulator of the proximate and immediate determinants of fertility and one of the most important demographers of the 20th century, noted that emigration often offset fertility decline (see also Friedlander 1969; Mosher 1980; Moore 1945: 119; Hawley 1950, particularly chapter 9). But as with so many other demographic trends that did not fulfill the expectations of social scientists, this issue of migration offsetting fertility decline was ignored.

*****

 

Notes

. The landmark study supporting that migration—and hence male absenteeism— disrupted fertility in Caribbean communities was carried out by McElroy and Albuquerque (1990) who tested data from ten countries in the Commonwealth Caribbean. Using a Spearman’s rank-order correlation coefficient, they measured the relationship between out-migration and fertility for the 1960–1965 and the 1965–1970 periods. Their results yielded correlation coefficients of -0.52 and -0.39 (McElroy and Albuuquerque 1990: 792), respectively. Neither of the tests were statistically significant at the 0.05 level, the data nevertheless seemed to indicate that out-migration correlates negatively with fertility decline in Caribbean sending countries—the higher the out-migration the lower the fertility rate. But, rather than demonstrating that male wage migration disrupts fertility, their data can be interpreted as demonstrating the opposite.

First, although their argument that emigration during the 1960s is “dominated by females” (McElroy and Albuquerque cite Marshal, 1985:52), temporary wage migration was clearly dominated by men. Looking at Marino’s sex ratio chart (in the main text) it can be seen that out of the ten Caribbean countries for which McElroy and Albuquerque provide data, men were in the minority in all but one; in most of the cases men were outnumbered by reproductive-age females three to two and in some cases there were almost twice as many reproductive-age females as men.

The most significant shortcoming in their argument has to do with attempting to identify the “independent influence of migration” that McElroy and Albuquerque claimed they had isolated (1990: 785). The researchers did not account for other variables affecting fertility, such as wage labor available to women. This neglect is understandable because, as the authors themselves point out, reliable cross-country socioeconomic data for the Caribbean is scarce (McElroy and Albuquerque 1990: 785–86). On the other hand, the failure to exercise socioeconomic controls damages the validity of their argument. And here is why:

Like other areas of the world, the Caribbean during the 1960s was experiencing dramatic socioeconomic changes. Specifically, in the countries included in McElroy and Albuquerque’s sample, the percentage of the labor force engaged in agriculture declined by an average of 30 percent; the percentage of population living in urban areas increased by 24 percent; female enrollment in primary school increased by 44 percent; life expectancy increased by an average of 5.1 years; and in most instances, infant mortality declined precipitously—in Grenada, for example, infant mortality declined from 77.9 to 34 deaths per 1,000; all factors known to precipitate or at least be associated fertility transition (Caldwell 1982; Handwerker 1986). And indeed, congruent with changes in living standards and economic conditions, Caribbean Total Fertility Rates declined during this period by an average .351 births per women.

Table 1: Caribbean net migration by total fertility rate

Because of the dramatic changes in demographic, health, and socioeconomic conditions, the measurement of interest for McElroy and Albuquerque should not have been how much Caribbean out-migration correlated with fertility levels. The relationship that McElroy and Albuquerque should have measured is how much out-migration detracted from or sped Caribbean fertility decline, i.e., the average level of migration correlated with the change in fertility rates. When McElroy and Albuquerque’s data is used to plot the changes in TFR (1970 TFR minus 1960 TFR) against the rate of out-migration, a very different picture emerges than that proposed by the researchers.

The amount of reduction in fertility levels for individual Caribbean countries correlated with the average rate of migration for the 1960 to 1970 period indicates an association between small or absent fertility decline and high levels of out-migration (see table 18.2). A Spearman’s rank-order correlation coefficient yields a -.340 (without significance below the .05 level). In effect, the higher the migration the lower the fertility decline. When Puerto Rico is excluded from the data set, because it is an outlier and was experiencing large-scale economic and social intervention from the United States during this era, a Spearman’s rank-order correlation coefficient takes on the value of -.628 (with significance below the .05 level. Thus, rather than stimulating fertility decline, it could more easily be argued that migration offset fertility decline. Moreover, the studies provided by Marino (1970) and Brittain (1990, 1991a, 1991b) demonstrate that before the onset of rapid fertility decline in the region, there was a correspondence between male absenteeism and increased birth rates.

Table 2: Correlations in average change in total fertility rate by net migration

2. The fewer men, more babies relationship was also evident in Jean Rabel. With the first coup d’etat (1991) that deposed democratically elected Jean Bertrand Aristide and the ensuing three years of international embargo, the migration of men conspicuously intensified. An unprecedented wave of mostly young males left the area headed for the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Suriname, Cuba, Panama, Honduras, Venezuela, Colombia, Mexico, the United States, and the nearby Bahamas. The migration was such that in 1997, Jean Rabel sex ratios for the twenty- to thirty-four-year age varied from eighty-five to ninety-two males for every one hundred females. Most of these missing men had left home in search of employment so they could remit income primarily to mothers, mothers of their children, wives, and girlfriends. Moreover, using clinic data from the Bon Nouvel Mission (a clinic in Jean Rabel), and comparing that data for the periods before and after 1992 suggests that birth rates during this period markedly increased. Comparing the seven year time period (1985–1992) with the six year time period (1993–1999), there was a 20 percent decrease in contraceptive use from 6.9 percent to 5.5 percent; a two-year decline in mother’s age at first birth , from twenty-two to twenty years of age ( P < .05); and a 5.9 month decline in the average length of a woman’s first inter-birth interval, from 29.5 to 23.6 months (p > .05 but p < .10).
3. “Lè li ka boukannen” (when he can barbeque) is an expression that derives from children digging up and cooking sweet potatoes, something young children, especially boys, often do, and it signifies a child’s ability to look after himself.
4. O, pou ki yon moun fe ti moun? Ke vle di, ou fe ti moun nan. W-ap bat pou chape yo. . . . L-ap grandi yo. L-ap chape. Demen si dieu vle, si ou bezwen ti dlo li ka ba ou. Si ou bezwenn ti bout bwa li ka pote li pou ou. Ou bezwenn ni konn ed.
5. Mwen fe ti moun, kounye-a m vin gen yon pwoblem, kounye-a ti moun ka redi pwoblem. Demen si dieu vle, m vin pa kapab, se sou kont ti moun m-ap vini. Kounye-a map chape yo. Demen si dieu vle yo ka bat ave-m.
6. L-ap ba-m di goude pou ti moun, se sa k fe m ta reme sa
7. Non. Lè yon moun jenn, bagay sa m-ap di, ou bezwenn yon mari, komsi m di, si ou poko enfante, ou ka enfante yon ti moun.
8. Si yon moun marie, pou ki sa li marie? Li pa marie ni pou chef ni pou anyen. Se pou li ka fe dè ti moun. . . . En ben, pou kisa yon moun fe ti moun? Se pou li ka ed-o. . . al nan dlo-a . . . al nan bwa.
9. M-ap swiv neg la, paskè m gentan gen pitit ave-li. Li pa ka abandone ni net. Fo-k li vin chita la pou ede-m chape ti moun yo
10. En ben, ki fe-m ka viv san gason? Sa-m bezwenn m ka leve yon sak manje, se a kat ti moun um m ka rive.
11. Si m gen ti moun m pa bezwenn mari-m menm. Ti moun, hoy, hoy. M ta reme dis pitit, m pa bezwenn mari.
12. Pou ki rezon fe-m ka viv san gason. Ko-m rive nan laj konsa. Tout afe-m mache. M pa bezwenn mari-m anko.

 

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